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Dating of the "genetic Rurik"
http://muinainensuomi.foorumi.eu/viewtopic.php?f=28&t=836
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Kirjoittaja:  Jaska [ 28 Marras 2013 15:10 ]
Viestin otsikko:  Dating of the "genetic Rurik"

On another forum I considered the time-depth and definition of the Rurikid group:

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Lainaa:
But one clarification: Rusu 170255 is Rurikid genetically (Massalski line).

Do you mean genealogically? Because genetically that seems impossible: he does not have the Rurikid STR-mutations, and he has STR-mutations of a different branch.

But of course it is a question of definition: in my presentation the "genetic Rurik" is 3b2a1a, but if we make the ancestral 3b2a1 as the "genetic Rurik", then Rusu and others would be within the Rurikid group. But 3b2a1a is still the "core Rurikid group", and they don't belong to that.

But if we check the time-depth, we can see that TGD from 3b2a1 to 3b2a1a is 7/111 or 3/67, and from 3b2a1a to individual Rurikids several STR-mutations have occurred, making the average roughly around 7+7 = 14/111.

From 3b2a1 to Rusu TGD is 9/111 (0/67), but others from that group have undergone much more mutations: Liukko 15/111, Mukovnikov 15/111, Pirttivaara 19/111; average being ~14,5/111.

According to Rozhanskii & Klyosov, the mutation rate with 111 markers is 0,198 per haplotype, which means an average 1M/5G (1 mutation per 5 generations). Averaging Rurikid 14/111 and Rusu-group 14,5/111 we get ~14/111, which means 70 generations = 1750-2100 years.

So, it seems most probable that 3b2a1 was not the "genetic Rurik" but somebody of his distant ancestors. The "genetic Rurik" was 3b2a1a, and Rusu, Mukovnikov and others are not true Rurikids, although their ancestry also goes to Scandinavia. Their ancestors were distant relatives of the "genetic Rurik" and may have come to Russia together with the "genetic Rurik".

If genealogical information disagrees with the genes, the genealogy is wrong - either due to forgery or because somebody had a different biological father than he thought... :)

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Suomeksi:
STR-mutaatioiden perusteella "geneettinen Rurik" 3b2a1a osuu suunnilleen tuhannen vuoden taakse, kun taas edeltävä taso 3b2a1 voi olla jopa 2000 vuotta vanha. Tämän jälkeläistenkin alkuperä vie Skandinaviaan, mutta he eivät ole "oikeita" rurikideja vaan geneettisen Rurikin kaukaisia sukulaisia.

Haplotyyppisukupuu:
http://www.elisanet.fi/alkupera/N1c1tree.pdf

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